By Phil Buck, KIRO 7 Eyewitness News Sports Producer

The Green Bay Packers came out of Championship Sunday as 2.5-point favorites to beat the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. This is a tough game to pick with 2 of the league's best quarterbacks taking on 2 of the league's top defenses. I'm going with the Pack in this one, but not because the oddsmakers tell me it's the smart money. There are 3 major factors that have influenced my call this year:

1) Offensive Line: We all know that many football games are won (and lost) in the trenches - especially in the postseason. The Steelers have had a smattering of injuries across their offensive front this year, most recently with center Maurkice Pouncey spraining his ankle against the Jets in the AFC Championship. Admittedly the Steelers have done about as well as possible overcoming those injuries thanks in large part to a top-notch front office and coaching staff, but I think it all catches up with them on February 6th. Backup center Doug Legursky did a good job filling in for Pouncey against the Jets, but he'll need to do it all over again under the world's largest microscope if Pouncey can't play against the Packers (NOTE - Pouncey is listed as "Questionable" for Super Bowl XLV, but anyone who saw him come off the field after being injured in the AFC title game will tell you it would be a small miracle if he is at full strength by game time. I know, I know - Terrell Owens did it in Super Bowl XXXIX - but I just don't see the 300+-pound Pouncey making that kind of a comeback). The saving grace for this Steelers' offense could be the running game, which was a key factor in Pittsburgh's win over the Jets. On the other side of the ball the Packers will need to protect Aaron Rodgers from a Steelers D that's going to come at him from every angle. Rodgers has proven to be dangerous with both his arm and his legs and he’ll need both to beat Pittsburgh. The Steelers are going to get into the Packers’ backfield – that’s what they do – it will be up to Rodgers to escape those tacklers and make some big plays.

2) Momentum: I like teams that get their backs against the wall early. We've seen it before: a team that needs to make a run at the end of the regular season sneaks into the playoffs and rides the momentum all the way to the Super Bowl (see: the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers). This Packers team has been through a lot this year, battling through injuries and losses en route to the NFC title. They played a couple must-win games at the end of the regular season then went on the road and beat the Eagles, Falcons and Bears in the playoffs. This is a team that has "gotten hot at the right time" as they say. They just look dialed in - and even though the Packers' offense struggled against Chicago in the NFC Championship, they found a way to grit it out and get the win in a hostile environment. The Steelers have some good momentum going of their own, having won 8 of their last 9 games, but they had a much easier road earning a first-round bye and playing the Divisional and Championship playoffs at home. It can be argued that the extra week in between Championship Sunday and the Super Bowl can hurt a team with the Pack’s kind of momentum, but I feel like Green Bay has the right guys in its locker room to keep the team focused throughout the circus that is Super Bowl week.

3) My Heart: I was born and raised in Seattle. I am not only a journalist who covers Seattle sports teams, I am a Seattle sports fan as well. The 2005 season was a magical time for me as it was for any other Seahawks fan, and like many Hawks fans I still get a bad taste in my mouth and feel my stomach turn a little when I think about Super Bowl XL. Blame the outcome on what you will (thank you for clearing your conscience Bill Leavy, better late than never), but the fact remains that the 12th man still feels like we got robbed in that one - and whether it's the Steelers' fault or not I'm just not ready to show that team any love. As I sat in my edit bay at work and watched the live postgame feed from Heinz Field last Sunday, there was a part of me that winced as I watched those players, that team, those fans - get another one. I consider myself an objective guy, and from my point of view the Steelers are a hard organization to dislike - classy ownership, loyal fans, hard-nosed players and coaches, etc. They're a hard team to pick against in this game with all the experienced veterans on the roster, but the kid in me who grew up in the concrete caverns of the Kingdome, the one who used to pretend to be Cortez Kennedy when we played football in the street, won't let me go there.

When the Packers and Steelers played in Pittsburgh in December of 2009 it was a classic. Both teams traded blow after blow deep into the 4th quarter when Aaron Rodgers gave the Packers the lead, throwing a touchdown pass with 2:04 to play, then Ben Roethlisberger threw a touchdown pass as time expired to give the Steelers a 37-36 win. I can only hope that Super Bowl XLV is half as exciting, and I think it will be. I expect a similar slugfest between two of the league's best teams, two of the league's best quarterbacks and two of the league's most storied franchises. Packers win, 27-20.