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Saturday, May 18, 2013 | 7:31 p.m.

Morgan Palmer's Weather Blog

Posted: 8:01 a.m. Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Reasons for the recent lightning shows over the Northwest 

Lightning strike caught on camera
skunkbayweather.com
Lightning strike caught on camera

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Stormtracker 3D on June 12 photo
Stormtracker 3D on June 12
Stormtracker 3D on June 12 photo
Stormtracker 3D on June 12

By Morgan Palmer

Beginning more than a week ago, several rounds of prolific lightning storms have graced the skies of Western Washington.  

Normally, we see a few bolts of lightning from time-to-time in a strong downpour, but Friday's event was particularly notable.

Between Midnight Friday and 10 p.m. that evening, there were 1,545 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in the Western Washington region.   That's an extraordinary number and does not include cloud-to-cloud strikes which aren't a threat to people on the ground, but still produce thunder.

 

So what in the world happened?

I had quite a few questions about the sheer amount of lightning in Monday's 1 p.m. chat on KIROTV.com:

Rose on Facebook asked, "Hi there.  I was in Mill Bay on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada on Friday night when the lightning storm was so intense.  The thunder and lightning was none stop and I was just wondering why.  It was a bit scary being outdoors but exciting at the same time.  Will we experience anything similar soon?"

Me:  "The level of instability has been unusual recently with a warm surface layer and unusually cold air aloft...This provides for significant buoyancy of the warm surface air and it can rise rapidly into thunderstorms.  Alternatively, air striking our mountain ranges is forced upward, too.  The greater the updraft speed, the more molecules are 'rubbed together' within the thunderstorm, producing static electricity (just like rubbing your stocking feet on carpet creates a static charge on your body, and that static electricity is released by touching a metal object).  Updraft strength can usually be determined (crudely) by looking at how high in the atmosphere the thunderstorm tops are. Typically, we'll see a good thunderstorm west of the Cascades topping out -- maybe -- in the 20 to 25,000 foot range.  Both last Sunday night and on Friday, we were seeing MOST cells shooting to 35,000 and some going well over 40,000 feet.  That is a tremendous difference in the updraft velocity, and hence, so much more static charge generated.  We're seeing the threat of this diminishing, and after today, the threat of a major lightning storm will have faded significantly (though some thunder still possible tomorrow afternoon, but mainly in the mountains)."

The unusual height of the thunderstorms was striking (no pun intended!), and the subject of quite a bit of conversation in local meteorological circles.  

With the advent of Doppler Radar, we can gather the approximate cloud top height in a storm.   In the weather center, we analyze the cell on Stormtracker 3D, and it gives us a good visual depiction of the size and shape of the thunderstorm!

I captured several views of thunderstorm cells early last Monday morning, July 9.   You can see those at right and enlarge the views.  (The height in "kft" (thousands of feet) is noted.)

Like I mentioned, moving raindrops, hailstones (and higher up, snowflakes) up to an altitude of eight miles takes a tremendous updraft velocity, and is extremely rare around Puget Sound.

The reason why we rarely get such storm updrafts is because of our normally-cool surface temperatures (cold air does not want to rise as readily) and the lack of a significant cold front or other mechanism to help "lift" air at the surface to get it rising on its own.

But with quite warm and humid air at the surface topped by cold air aloft, that created instability over the past week.  

Quick lesson: You can think of instability as how likely (and then, how fast) a "bubble" of warm air at the surface will "want" to rise on its own.   Warm air is less dense than cold air.   Warm air will rise, given the right circumstances and a "push."  As warm air rises, if it's rising very quickly into much colder-than-normal air above, that "bubble" of air just can't cool off fast enough to get a temperature equilibrium with the surrounding air!    The warm "bubble" of air will then continue rising.   Thunderstorms form with this rising air.   It's actually the same principle that keeps a hot air balloon floating in the sky!  There are other much-more-complicated principles that play into actually keeping a thunderstorm updraft going, but this simple principle of initial atmospheric instability is at the heart of thunderstorm science and forecasting.   When we describe "instability" on TV, this is usually what we're talking about.  

Back to recent events:

Counter-clockwise air flow around a low pressure just to our south allowed very hot and buoyant afternoon air from eastern Washington to be lifted up by the Cascades.  That was the lifting trigger needed.  Warm air was now rising fast up into cold air aloft, producing thunderstorms.  

The storm motion was east-to-west and these already-mature thunderstorms then plowed into the Puget Sound.

With very vigorous updrafts, plenty of static electricity was created and the difference between the (usually) negative charge along the base of the thunderstorm and the (usually) positive charge on the ground becomes too much for the air in between to insulate.

ZAP!  You have a cloud-to-ground lightning strike.

 

Whatever you do, do NOT get on your boat to look at lightning!

Mindy asked her question in the chat room.  (Again, every Monday at 1 p.m. at KIROTV.com)

Mindy: "Also is is safe to be out on the bay or any waterway during a thunderstorm? I noticed that here in Olympia many people took to their boats when the lightning started. I saw about 50 or more right in front of me that night."

Me:  "Mindy, that IS the worst thing you can do. People believe that their boats will insulate them from a lightning strike. That is hogwash. It can send electricity through the boat, catch it on fire, or blow a hole in it and suddenly everyone's in the water. On the bay or open water, those boats are the tallest structures around. Lightning finds the path of least resistance to discharge the electricity. Now, lightning might have been in the distance, but lightning can and has struck more than 25 miles away from the parent thunderstorm, under blue skies (called a "bolt from the blue")."

Boats alone are dangerous because, as I mentioned, they're usually going to be the tallest structure around.   Lightning is opportunistic, and it is "dumb."   It will simply look for the shortest electrical distance between it and ground.  

This is NOT the same as the shortest distance "as-the-crow-flies".  

It can occur that the air immediately beneath and around the thunderstorm has more resistance to the bolt that would pass through.   The charge can sometimes find its most efficient electrical path out the side of the parent cloud and strike some distance away through a pathway of air that has less resistance.

A boat is no match for lightning.  A stroke of lightning carries over a billion (with a b) volts of electricity and has an average power output of over a terawatt (that's one trillion watts).  At a temperature of upwards of 50,000° Fahrenheit, it's hot enough to fuse sand into glass in milliseconds.

That can certainly blow a hole right through a boat.   Sailboats can be considered an even greater risk because of the built-in lightning rod: the mast.


Did the solar flare cause all the lightning?

Debra on Facebook submitted this question:

Debra: "Does the nasty weather have any connection with the solar flare that came our way?"

Me: "I have fielded a few twitter questions about the solar flare, and the answer is, from all available research, no. The earth's magnetic field protects the planet from the worst of the effects. That said, there is a correlation between solar cycles (the 11- year up-and-down cycle of solar activity, in which we're presently in a max phase) and long-term climatological changes. However, the thunderstorm activity was forecast well before the solar flare of late last week and was due to a very strong cold pool of air aloft (that caused the extreme atmospheric instability), and the serious burst of charged particles that impacted the magnetic field and caused the aurorae, did not hit until Saturday afternoon. So "no" on the thunderstorms, but the sun does drive long-term climate in ways such as ocean temperatures over decades-long periods."

While the solar flare last Thursday did not cause Friday's thunderstorms, we do see some ebb-and-flow of various climate variables on the same 11-year peak-and-trough of solar activity.  

The reason?   Scientists aren't completely sure, but it's an important field of research.   If we can predict long-term climate changes years out and plan accordingly, it could save untold sums of money and countless lives.  

The perplexing part of it is the fact that between solar minimum and solar maximum, we only see an about 0.1% difference in total solar energy that reaches the earth.   The response to this in our atmosphere, however, is certainly greater than 0.1%!   

 

Join me at KIROTV.com every Monday at 1 p.m.!

It was a great chat Monday. 

If you can't join us in person, be watching KIRO 7's Twitter and Facebook feeds every Monday morning for the "call for questions!"

Morgan Palmer

About Morgan Palmer

Meteorologist Morgan Palmer serves as meteorologist for weekday editions of KIRO 7 Eyewitness News. Morgan began "chasing" storms as a Skywarn severe storm spotter while a teenager and continues to pursue severe storms when time permits.

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