Halfway through November

Thanksgiving is nearly a week away and the topic of conversation during the commercial breaks of our morning newscast was which holiday song is our favorite.  I know many find it annoying, but I have a soft spot for Paul McCartney’s “Wonderful Christmastime.”  Too early for Christmas songs?  OK… I hear you… let’s get back to the weather. 

We’re halfway through the month, so I thought this would be the perfect time to take a look at the temperatures and precipitation we have experienced so far this November.  In a nutshell, we have been on the cool and dry side. 

When we average out the high and low temperatures so far this month, we come out to 44.4°.  This is 2.2° BELOW the average temperature for the first 15 days of the month.  Rainfall has also been on the low side.  So far we have recorded 0.91 inches of rain at Sea-Tac Airport.  Typically we’re already at 3.19 inches.  Despite being over 2 inches in the red, we’ll be playing catch-up over the coming days.  Today’s storm looks to drop between 0.25” to 0.75” of rain around Seattle and this wet pattern looks to hold into Thanksgiving.    

Today’s storm and the possibility of lowland snow

Another November storm is plowing into Western Washington right now.  You can clearly see the plume of moisture extending into our area on the satellite image.  Steady rain is spreading into Puget Sound this morning with showers continuing throughout the day. We're off to a cool start with temperatures in the 30s around the sound.  Areas around Hood Canal, the Kitsap Peninsula, and Cascade foothills may keep cold enough air in place this morning to start as rain/snow mix showers.  Any snow will rapidly turn over to rain with high temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper 40s.  Steady rain across the lowlands means heavy mountain snow is on the way for the mountains.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Cascades where 6 to 12 inches of snow is forecast for the passes.  Snoqualmie Pass will start as snow before turning over to rain this afternoon.  It will transition back to snow later this evening.  

Winds are picking up late this morning and will be peaking through the afternoon.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for areas around Port Townsend, Whidbey Island, Camano Island, the San Juan Islands, the Washington Coast and the Lake Lawrence area of Thurston County.  Gusts up to 50 mph are forecast.  The rest of the sound will see winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.  

Showers continue tomorrow with the chance of some thunderstorms around the sound.  Heavy downpours and  hail are possible through Thursday.  Heavy enough showers may bring a rain/snow mix around some of the higher hills tomorrow.  There is a better opportunity for lowland snowflakes on Friday.  

Colder air works into the area by Friday morning, bringing the snow level down around 500 feet.  This is cold enough for rain/snow mix showers across the lowlands. The best chance of lowland snow will be over higher hills, along the Cascade foothills, north of Everett and around the Kitsap Peninsula.  The trick with getting snow around Puget Sound is having cold enough air AND enough moisture.  That combination is often hard to achieve.  On Friday we will have moisture in place, but it will be a bit limited.  I do not see this being a major lowland snow event... accumulations will be localized in the areas I just mentioned.  This will not be a hard freeze, so any accumulation will be turning to slush with highs around 40 degrees on Friday.  The weekend dries out with more sun, but it remains chilly.  High temperatures will be in the low 40s Saturday and Sunday.

Stay up to date with the latest forecast changes here at www.kirotv.com.  Have a great Wednesday! 

-Sam Argier, KIRO 7 Morning Meteorologist